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Marginary
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The decision log

"Why is this price $23.45?"

Every check writes one sentence — what it did, what the competition did to cause it, what that beat, and what stopped it going further. Including the checks where nothing moved, and the ones a safety limit stopped.

Below is one day of one account. The sentence structure is the product's. The figures are samples.

Price cut Anker PowerCore 10000 · B07XYZ4421 09:42

Cut the price from $24.99 to $23.45 after the best rival offer undercut you to $23.40 from $24.10, 12 minutes ago. Matching the lowest offer would have earned $0.62 less per day. Featured Offer odds go from 41% to 68%.

Your range $18.99 – $34.00 Sellers on listing 6 Amazon selling No Margin after fees 18.4% Observations 214
Stopped by a limit Hydro Flask 32oz · B08QQ1187 09:41

Held at $18.99 instead of moving to $17.80 because a safety rule stopped the move. Your minimum price of $18.99 stopped it going lower.

Floor rule 15% return on cost Break-even $16.02 Landed cost $14.20
Price raised Lodge Cast Iron 12" · B0912LMN5 09:38

Raised the price from $31.00 to $32.40 because expected daily profit peaks there. These odds still lean on the general model, with only 4 recorded observations on this listing.

Confidence Low Source Mostly general model Sellers on listing 3
Price-war brake Sony WH-1000XM4 · B0863TXGM3 09:35

Held at $42.50 because prices on this listing have fallen four times in the last hour. Marginary stopped following them down.

Cheapest offer $38.90 Fall in 1 hour −9.4% Brake On
Nothing to do Yeti Rambler 20oz · B07FZ8S74R 09:34

Held at $27.95 because the market has not moved since the last check and this is already the best price in your range.

Featured Offer share today 81% Last change 4 hours ago
Amazon on the listing Fjällräven Kånken · B001U3Y5KQ 09:31

Held at $79.00 because Amazon itself holds the Featured Offer at $76.50. Competing on price here would cost more than it wins.

Amazon price $76.50 Your floor $71.20 Strategy Back off when Amazon sells
Price raised Nespresso Vertuo pods · B07L3XPLQ2 09:29

Raised the price from $44.00 to $46.75 because you will run out 11 days before your restock lands. Selling the remaining 38 units slower earns more than selling them now.

Stock 38 units Cover at current rate 9 days Restock in 20 days
Daily cap Command Strips 40ct · B00347A8LC 09:26

Held at $11.25 because this item has already changed price 3 times today, which is the limit you set.

Changes today 3 of 3 Wanted price $10.95
Too small to bother Bose SoundLink Flex · B096ZY1J5N 09:22

Held at $119.00 because the move it wanted was $0.02, below the smallest change you said was worth making.

Smallest change $0.10 Wanted move −$0.02
Price cut Logitech MX Master 3S · B09HM94VDS 09:18

Cut the price from $99.99 to $96.95 after your Featured Offer share fell from 62% to 19% over three days. Rounded down to .95 as you asked. Odds go from 22% to 55%.

Share, 3-day trend −43 pts Capped move 5% max Margin after fees 21.7%

No checks of that kind in this run.

Narratives have a maximum length and truncate. Decisions recorded before this feature existed fall back to their stored reason and say so, rather than showing you an empty explanation.

Rules

Every rule keeps a seven-day scoreboard

How often it fired, what it did to your Featured Offer share, and what it was worth per day — labelled as modelled, because it is. A rule that fires constantly and improves nothing is a rule you should delete.

Last 7 days Modelled
Beat the cheapest FBA offer
412 fires
+9.2 pts
Hold when Amazon is on the listing
88 fires
+2.1 pts
Raise when stock is short
37 fires
+0.8 pts
Match the lowest price
1,304 fires
−0.3 pts

Fires most, changes least. Worth deleting.

Honesty

It tells you when it's guessing

A brand-new listing has no history, so its odds are the general model wearing a percentage sign. Marginary says so, in the sentence, until that listing has enough of its own measured observations to speak for itself.

The same applies to money. Days where it can see your Amazon orders show observed units; days it can't keep a modelled estimate, clearly labelled. A day with no orders visible is never silently turned into a zero.

Profit per day · this week
Mon — Amazon orders visible$412.80
Tue — Amazon orders visible$389.10
Wed Modelled$401 est.
Thu — Amazon orders visible$455.35
Fri — no order data yet

Featured Offer share is always measured, never modelled.

Read a fortnight of its decisions before it makes one.

Fourteen days free on Starter, and every check it makes writes one of these.

14 days free on Starter · emergency stop from day one